A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
