Escalating Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Armed Clash

Growing apprehensions have emerged regarding the chance of armed conflict between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict occurred, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was over – a action that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened once more.